Backtests & side-by-side compare

The Strategy page is the lab: run a backtest of your active strategy version (a simulation against history), read its equity curve — the chart of the strategy’s value over time — against SPY (a fund tracking the S&P 500), inspect walk-forward folds, and — once two or more versions have been backtested — compare them side by side.

Running a backtest

The header button queues a run on demand (there’s no schedule — backtests run when you ask). Results land in three cards: the equity curve (strategy vs SPY), the metrics table (Sharpe and Sortino — return earned per unit of risk taken; max drawdown — the worst peak-to-bottom fall; CAGR — average yearly growth; and more), and the walk-forward folds.

Why walk-forward folds

A single full-period backtest can flatter a strategy that only worked in one kind of market (one long rally, say). Walk-forward testing splits history into time-ordered slices (folds) — tune on one stretch, test on the next — so each fold’s result comes from data the configuration never saw. Spread across folds matters as much as the average: a strategy that wins on aggregate but dies in two folds is telling you something.

Side-by-side comparison

With multiple versions backtested, the comparison card lines their metrics up version-vs-version — the honest way to decide whether yesterday’s tweak actually helped before you let it trade.